Turkey’s external hit, Karlsruhe ruling, Russia’s lockdown

Strains in Turkey’s balance of payments persist and recent developments have done little to alter our view that the risk of another currency crisis is rising. Meanwhile, a ruling last week by the German constitutional court (Karlsruhe) has raised the spectre of Poland and Hungary adopting a more hostile stance towards the European Commission. Finally, there are growing concerns that Russia is lifting its coronavirus containment measures too quickly, with potentially important long-term implications for the economy and domestic politics.