Taking the long view

The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often overlooked. In general, we’re pretty upbeat. But history suggests that those countries which have enjoyed the fastest rates of growth have also been those with the best business environments as well as the most openness to trade and investment. On this basis, we’re most optimistic about the medium-term growth prospects in Central Europe and the Baltic States, and least optimistic about Russia and Ukraine.