The combination of strong growth and rising core inflation has led some members of Poland’s MPC to strike a more hawkish tone in recent months. However, while this is consistent with our view that interest rates will ultimately be raised by more than the markets anticipate over the coming years, the reality is that the majority of the MPC remain in favour of keeping policy support in place for the time being. We do not expect the first rate hike to come until 2018.
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