Sanctions push Russian central bank to tighten

The tone of the Russian central bank’s press conference suggests that today’s interest rate hike was a pre-emptive move against an expected tightening of US sanctions, not the start of a cycle. As things stand, we think it’s most likely that rates will be left on hold this year and next. But the outlook will hinge on the measures the US imposes and, if there are any moves over the next six months, these will be up.