Russia recession may be short-lived but growth will remain weak

The slump in Q2 growth in Russia reported last week appears consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of 2013. The good news is that barring an unforeseen external shock (for example a sharp fall in oil prices), the economy should return to growth in the second half of the year. The bad news is that the recovery remains far from secure and in any case is unlikely to be particularly impressive.