Oil output cuts explain only part of Russia’s slowdown

Russia’s participation in the OPEC deal to cut oil output, which was rolled over last night, has so far had only a modest impact on the economy and can account for just 10% of the slowdown in annual GDP growth between Q2 and Q3. It is likely to have a larger effect on annual GDP growth in Q4 – the oil sector could knock around 0.2%-pts off headline growth. But even this is pretty small, and the drag on growth should ease over the course of 2018.