Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia

The plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia’s economy into a financial crisis, as it did in 2008/09 and 2015. But the government is likely to run its largest budget deficit since the late 1990s, which will limit the size of the fiscal package to support the economy from the coronavirus. The central bank will probably provide more support, including an interest rate cut of at least 50bp at Friday’s meeting.