Will Russia be Europe’s leader or laggard?

Despite being richer than the rest of the so-called BRICs, there is still plenty of scope for Russia to undergo a period of rapid catch-up growth and it may yet overtake Germany as Europe’s largest economy by 2035. But this would require wholesale policy reform, for which there seems little appetite at present. Accordingly, while growth is likely to fluctuate with the price of oil, we doubt it will average much more than 2-3% per annum over the next twenty years or so.