Inflation to slow in 2012, Turkey the exception

The spike in inflation that has dominated the headlines in recent months should be short-lived. In most countries, rising inflation has been driven by higher food and energy inflation, which in turn has been the result of the spike in global commodity prices. But even if commodity prices now stabilise, headline inflation should start to fall from around Q4. And if commodity prices fall outright, as we think likely, then inflation should drop back sharply in 2012. The exception to this is Turkey, where booming domestic demand will cause inflation to accelerate over the next year. Accordingly, we are becoming increasingly concerned that in the absence of significant post-election fiscal tightening, a period of outperformance for the Turkish economy ends in a harder landing further down the line.