The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset by weakness elsewhere. The cycle in Central and Eastern Europe is now looking mature and growth will soften by 2018, while we expect a sharper slowdown in Turkey. In aggregate, GDP growth in Emerging Europe is set to slow from 3.0% this year to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. Our growth forecasts for 2018-19 are – with the important exception of Russia – below consensus.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.