Virus restrictions to trigger a renewed downturn

The coronavirus outbreak across the region has gone from bad to worse. The Czech Republic has one of the highest per capita infection rates in the world and the two-week national lockdown until November 3rd has already hit activity in certain sectors. Outbreaks are less severe in Russia, Poland, and Hungary but public health situations are deteriorating. The authorities will hope that the measures imposed so far will start to flatten infection curves over the coming weeks and reduce the need for more stringent national lockdowns. But restrictions will generally remain tight. We expect most economies to contract in Q4, with the Czech Republic hit particularly hard.