Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years, but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. This was borne out in the mixed set of Q3 GDP data that were released earlier this month. Data from Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic all surprised on the upside, while the early signs are that Poland grew at a healthy clip as well (Q3 data have yet to be released here). But there were some disappointments too. GDP in Russia, the region’s largest economy, contracted in the wake of this summer’s droughts and associated wildfires. Meanwhile, the Romanian economy also contracted in the third quarter following the introduction of further fiscal austerity measures. In short, while the worst of the financial crisis that engulfed the region two years ago has now passed, the recovery is likely to be stop-start with some economies (Poland and Turkey) continuing to impress, and others (notably the Balkans) lagging behind.
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