New Zealand signals earlier rate hikes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, left its cash rate at 2.5%. But it brought forward the first projected hike to mid-2010 after steadfastly insisting up to now that rates would probably not move until the “second half” of next year. Markets expect a first hike in early Q2 2010, followed by an aggressive monetary tightening. However, we believe that the RBNZ will be able to stick to its mid-2010 starting-point and then expect only a mild tightening cycle.