Waiting for the next big move

It has been a relatively quiet week in most commodity markets, except for energy. Oil prices rose again, to over $70 per barrel for Brent, on news of military operations in Libya. However, we think at this stage much of the bad news on supply is now factored into prices. Instead, the next big price move will probably be in early May in response to the US decision on whether to extend waivers from sanctions for some of Iran’s largest customers. It seems likely that waivers will prevail in some form as President Trump will be reluctant to add fuel to the oil price rally. Next week is busy on the data front. US and Chinese industrial production data for March may drive sentiment in the industrial metals markets. We expect a slight improvement in China’s activity and investment data, which should be positive for prices. That said, it could be a relatively quiet week given that many markets will be closed on Friday for Easter.