The prices of many industrial commodities, including oil, fell this week despite the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. The dollar was volatile, but ended the week lower. On Thursday, the publication of solid Chinese activity data for Q4 and December lent some support to industrial metals. Meanwhile, the price of gold has dipped, for the first time in six weeks, on concerns about rising US bond yields.
Commodity markets could focus on US trade policy next week in the absence of market-moving data releases. The NAFTA negotiations are due to resume in Montreal (Tuesday) and Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos next Friday, with a speech that is likely to be characterised by protectionist rhetoric. Elsewhere, we expect the BoJ (Tuesday) and ECB (Thursday) to keep their policy settings unchanged.
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