Despite this week’s partial recovery, we continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent crude to drop back below $90 by the end of the year, as global demand slows, the Middle East risk premium fades, and the dollar rebounds. This would mean a $25 drop in the price of Brent from current levels, with only slightly smaller falls for other benchmarks such as US WTI. Lower energy costs in turn should help reduce the prices of foodstuffs and industrial metals.
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