The regular OPEC meeting on 14th December will be overshadowed by the crisis in the euro-zone and tensions with Iran. Our oil price forecasts give more weight to the fall-out from a further escalation of the economic and financial crisis in Europe, which looks a near-certainty, rather than speculation about some form of military strike on Iran and/or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, outcomes which for now at least remain much less likely. As a result, we continue to expect the price of Brent crude, currently around $108 per barrel, to fall further and drop below $80 within the next two years.
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