Brent on course to end year below $100

Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the rest of the year but the overall trend in oil prices is likely to be downwards, as was the pattern in 2011. Other negatives will come into play too: in particular, the catalyst for the next big step down could be an easing of sanctions on Iran, perhaps as soon as this month after talks scheduled for the 23^rd.