Are we only part way through the downswing of a super-cycle?

The recent slump in industrial commodity prices can largely be attributed to ample supply built up during the previous boom colliding with a sharp slowdown in demand. As such, it can be seen as the reverse of the upswing in the super-cycle driven by earlier rapid growth in China. However, we would be wary of comparisons with past cycles suggesting that the downswing has much further to run. In our view, many prices – including crude oil and copper – have already fallen far enough to prompt the supply and demand responses necessary for a sustained recovery.