Household debt will remain a risk for years to come

The news earlier this week that household debt had edged down to 168.0% of disposable incomes in the first quarter, from 169.7% in the final quarter of last year, was greeted by some as confirmation that the Bank of Canada had somehow engineered a soft landing in the housing market. It hasn’t. Debt usually surges in the fourth quarter ahead of the Holiday season and falls back in the first quarter, as people pay down their credit cards. Moreover, by focusing on debt exclusively, those commentators also conveniently failed to note that overall household net worth declined to a two-year low of 857% of disposable income.