China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong's economy expanded by 5.2% y/y in Q3, up from 4.2% in Q2 and well above market expectations. In seasonally adjusted q/q terms, growth accelerated to a brisk 1.9%, reversing the previous... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2026) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy activity lost momentum in October following September’s pick-up. Manufacturing softened a touch, but foreign demand still looks resilient. More worrying was the... 2nd November 2026 (Updated 4th November 2026) · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly A worrying shift in corporate loan demand On the surface, bank loans to corporates are still growing at a healthy clip, with weaker lending for property development and infrastructure largely offset by stronger lending elsewhere. But a... 30th October 2026 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly China’s long chase after the US AI Goliath China’s AI computing capacity is expanding rapidly, but the gap with the US remains substantial and could widen further. Chinese AI models are likely to remain competitive. But limited access to... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update GDP pick-up belies weaker domestic demand Official GDP growth picked up in Q3, but the improvement masks a further weakening in domestic demand. The detailed breakdown suggests that last quarter’s rebound was driven entirely by net exports... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2026) The improvement in official GDP growth last quarter is at odds with the slowdown shown by our China Activity Proxy (CAP). But the September data do suggest that the economy regained momentum at the... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bond market déjà vu for the PBOC The PBOC again faces the question of whether to intervene as China’s 10-year government bond yield approaches its historic low, a situation that prompted the central bank to suspend bond purchases in... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth fell to a fresh record low last month, dragged down by continued weakness in bank lending. Household borrowing remained the main drag, reflecting weak appetite for debt-financed... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Sep. 2026) China’s trade growth strengthened further in September, with both exports and imports expanding rapidly. Higher prices of semiconductors and key commodities are flattering the figures, especially on... 14th October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2026) Higher global energy prices continued to push up producer price inflation in September, but the impact was limited to a few narrow areas. Consumer price inflation also picked up, but core inflation... 14th October 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI trade surplus rising, despite surge in chip imports China's trade deficit in chips and computing equipment has increasing significantly over the past year as imports have surged. But an even larger pick-up in exports of other goods required to build... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2026) The PMI readings for September were reassuring. Downward pressure on construction activity eased markedly, reflecting the fading impact of typhoon disruptions and a likely pick-up in fiscal spending... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
