China Economics Focus Chinese AI models – your questions answered Last week’s release of Kimi K3 has triggered a renewed wave of global interest in Chinese AI models. This Focus answers the key questions we have received from clients. It discusses how Chinese models... 23rd July 2026 · 24 mins read
China Economics Weekly Global views are shifting in China’s favour Public opinion favours China over the US in most major economies, according to survey data published by the Pew Research Center this week. That includes several countries that we classify as... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI fracturing is broadening out Reports that China's Ministry of Commerce has been looking into restricting foreign access to top Chinese AI models are yet another sign that the bifurcation of US and Chinese AI stacks is moving... 10th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s PPI surprise, Ebola response South Africa’s PPI surprised to the upside this week, but with crude oil back to pre-war prices and domestic harvests strong, we think the SARB rate hiking cycle is nearly done. Elsewhere, the Ebola... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The impact of the China shock on Japan’s economy Japan has weathered the China shock well so far, largely because the sharp weakening of the yen has kept Japanese exports competitive. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to keep weakening rapidly... 18th May 2026 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update Trump-Xi summit: Truce continues, substance lacking While we are still waiting for full details on what was agreed at the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, it seems mostly just to have cemented the existing trade truce. This should ensure near... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary votes for change The macroeconomic impact of the landslide Tisza victory in Hungary is most likely to materialise over the medium term. More immediately, expectations for improved credibility policy and renewed access... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thoughts on Hungary’s incoming geopolitical reset The incoming Tisza government is likely to realign Hungary’s foreign policy stance towards the EU, but economic pragmatism will mean that ties with Russia (energy) and China (FDI) adjust only... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s sternest challenge Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday could bring an end to PM Orbán’s 16-year rule and usher in a shift to a more market-friendly and EU-aligned government. But there’s still a lot of... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The state of play ahead of Hungary’s election The opposition Tisza party heads into Hungary’s election this weekend as the favourite but may still fall short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to deliver deep institutional reform and unlock... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. Indeed, euro-zone imports from China have... 23rd March 2026 (Updated 30th March 2026) · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined... 23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read
