Chief Economist's Note China Shock 2.0: Key Messages This note summarises the key conclusions from our recent series on China Shock 2.0. The ongoing shock is not simply a repeat of the original China shock of the 2000s. China is once again increasing... 13th October 2026
China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China could weather tougher EU trade restrictions Even a sharp escalation in EU trade restrictions would have only a small impact on China’s economy. We estimate that an additional 20%-pt tariff on Chinese imports across strategically important... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus How undervalued is the renminbi? Even though the renminbi is at its strongest level against the US dollar since 2022, in real trade-weighted terms it remains close to its weakest in more than a decade. In our assessment, it is... 6th October 2026 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update China Shock 2.0: a growing challenge for Korea China’s rise up the manufacturing value chain is putting increasing pressure on Korean producers. The impact has been particularly pronounced in batteries, petrochemicals and shipbuilding, where... 5th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus China Shock 2.0 may sow the seeds of the next crisis China’s soaring exports are widening global trade imbalances in ways that echo the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. History suggests that at some point these must narrow. This could happen in... 29th September 2026 · 31 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Poor returns from China’s assets are structural, not cyclical Despite China’s apparently robust economic growth over the past decade, the returns from its stock market have been poor and its bond yields are very low. We think the next decade will be similarly... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How China’s export surge has influenced DM inflation China’s influence on headline inflation in advanced economies has been much smaller than is often assumed, given the dominant weight of services in consumer spending. But its surging exports have had... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus China Shock hitting euro-zone harder than most regions China Shock 2.0 will be a structural drag on euro-zone growth for the rest of this decade. Consumers will benefit from cheaper and increasingly sophisticated Chinese imports but manufacturers are... 16th September 2026 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Focus China Shock 2.0 is good news for ASEAN China’s export surge is strengthening rather than hollowing out South East Asian manufacturing. Cheaper inputs and Chinese investment should continue to lift the region’s exports and industrial... 15th September 2026 · 15 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods Concerns abroad about China’s surging exports have largely focused on “strategic sectors”. Less acknowledged is that China has been gaining significant global market share across the board, including... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
