Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
This Focus updates analysis first published in January 2025, before the start of President Trump’s second term. It forms part of our China Shock 2.0 series. Concerns abroad about China’s surging exports have largely focused on “strategic sectors”. Less …
10th September 2026
President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence, if it were needed, that these latest measures are …
9th September 2026
Limited appetite for a stronger renminbi The renminbi has been strengthening steadily against the dollar for more than a year. For much of that period, the PBOC appeared comfortable with the currency’s trajectory, allowing its daily fix to follow the spot …
28th August 2026
China and US aim to woo Egypt with AI Egypt is in the midst of an AI infrastructure battle between China and the US. Its decision could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing …
27th August 2026
Saudi tightens oversight of UAE transactions The past week has brought further evidence that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have moved into the economic sphere. Reuters reported that the Kingdom has increased regulatory oversight over financial …
20th August 2026
What might de la Espriella mean for BanRep? Abelardo de la Espriella’s swearing-in as president today will make Colombia the latest country in Latin America to shift to the right . Investors have reacted positively, with the peso up close to 19% against …
7th August 2026
This Focus provides a detailed analysis of recent changes in US tariff policy and discusses what future changes are likely. It addresses some key questions about how the new Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs compare to the previous Section 122 and IEEPA …
Homegrown hardware still lags far behind News that a Chinese firm has started to mass-produce immersion deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) machines added to broader market jitters around AI this week. Lithography machines are essential tools for …
31st July 2026
A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger currency is paired with forceful efforts to boost …
30th July 2026
”Tariff man” returns The Supreme Court’s February decision to strike down the “reciprocal tariffs” imposed under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) prompted a scramble within the administration to rebuild the partially knocked-down …
24th July 2026
The “ Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “ Liberation Day”) will expire on Friday, to be replaced by country-specific “Section 301” tariffs. The new …
23rd July 2026
The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be tested if agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz …
21st July 2026
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . There’s been no let-up in the exchange of strikes between the US and Iran in the past week, whilst the US has reimposed its naval blockade on Iran. At this stage, our central scenario …
16th July 2026
Model controls will reinforce the US-China divide China’s Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom) has held a series of meetings over the past month to discuss whether and how to restrict foreign access to top Chinese AI models, according to a Reuters report earlier …
10th July 2026
China’s powerful yet cheap models gain ground In mid-June, Chinese firm Z.ai launched an AI model – GLM 5.2 – that came close to matching the top US models on public benchmarks. Its intelligence score (a metric produced by Artificial Analysis that …
3rd July 2026
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – With risks surrounding the Iran conflict receding, the focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, which point to widening growth and policy divergence across the major economies. The US is set to …
30th June 2026
Overview – The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a whole. And the conflict will leave a lasting …
23rd June 2026
The victory for right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia’s presidential election should pave the way for more pro-business policymaking, tighter fiscal policy and improved relations with the US, which should support Colombian assets. We think local …
22nd June 2026
The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz – which might eventually lead to lower energy prices …
16th June 2026
Decoupling to continue despite Trump-Xi meeting We argued last week that the summit had delivered near-term stability in US-China ties without doing much to address the sources of tension between the two countries. Further details have emerged in recent …
22nd May 2026
At the start of the war in Iran, we outlined two scenarios for how the conflict might evolve and how the global economy would be affected. In our baseline scenario, we assumed that the conflict would draw to a close by the start of May and that energy …
18th May 2026
Japan has weathered the China shock well so far, largely because the sharp weakening of the yen has kept Japanese exports competitive. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to keep weakening rapidly over the coming years and we think that Chinese exports …
While we are still waiting for full details on what was agreed at the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, it seems mostly just to have cemented the existing trade truce. This should ensure near-term stability in US-China ties. But underlying tensions …
15th May 2026
Trump-Xi promises may prove largely empty Some details have already started to emerge from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. President Trump told US media that China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing aircraft. More announcements may follow once the presidents …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Hopes this time last week that the US and Iran might strike a deal to end the war quickly unravelled once the US received the latest proposal from Iran. Trump labelled it as “totally …
14th May 2026
There's a good chance that this week's meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing will generate far more attention than substance. The optics of the leaders of the world's two biggest economies meeting face to face are powerful. But the …
11th May 2026
Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China …
8th May 2026
Any deal will be limited in scope The delayed summit between Presidents Trump and Xi will take place in Beijing on Thursday and Friday. Unsurprisingly, Iran will loom large. The US wants China to use its leverage with Tehran to help negotiate a peace deal …
Trump tariffs on thin ice, again The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises the risk that the …
There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover. As a result, inflation risks are rising and central banks are coming under …
5th May 2026
China’s trade surplus has reached a record 1% of world GDP and looks set to rise further. It’s been driven, in part, by a surge in China’s exports – China has gained export market share across both low- and high-tech sectors, and with both advanced and …
30th April 2026
The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of pre-war imports. So unless the regime seeks concessions …
29th April 2026
The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case for additional policy support. The Iran War looks to …
28th April 2026
While financial markets have swung on the apparent de-escalation and re-escalation of the Iran war, the bigger structural story is quietly reasserting itself: global imbalances are back, and were a major focus of the IMF’s Spring Meetings last week. But …
21st April 2026
In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are greatest for autos and food production. But the overall macro …
16th April 2026
One certainty of the Iran war is that its consequences will reverberate far beyond the regional conflict. A question that repeatedly comes up in conversations with clients surrounds the geopolitical fallout, above all whether this conflict could mark a …
The incoming Tisza government is likely to realign Hungary’s foreign policy stance towards the EU, but economic pragmatism will mean that ties with Russia (energy) and China (FDI) adjust only gradually . Under Orbán, Hungary pursued what was often …
15th April 2026
The breakdown in talks between the US and Iran does not necessarily signal the end of efforts to resolve the conflict but the introduction of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipments transiting the Strait does introduce a new potential flashpoint. From a …
13th April 2026
China making inroads with its southern neighbours We argued back in January that while President Trump’s tariffs and antagonistic foreign policy had not fundamentally altered the core alliances that held the US bloc together, it had led to shifts in …
10th April 2026
A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured, it could formalise de-facto control over a critical …
9th April 2026
There are significant hurdles to overcome before the ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel and Iran can translate into a lasting end to the war. But if it were to hold, it would move outcomes closer to those envisaged in our “baseline” forecast. In …
8th April 2026
The impact of the surge in energy prices on the global economy will depend on the extent of any disruption to energy flows, which remains highly uncertain. Europe and Asia are more exposed than the US. As things stand, the baseline scenario is one in …
2nd April 2026
While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi Arabia would be more significant. Pakistan, the …
31st March 2026
The macroeconomic implications of regime change in Cuba – in whatever form – are likely to remain limited beyond Cuba’s own economy, given that the island does not play a major role on the global stage. The more significant consequences would be …
30th March 2026
Last week we published revised economic and market forecasts based on different scenarios for how the Iran war develops. In this week’s note, I answer the key questions we have been asked in subsequent client briefings. 1. What is the likely impact on …
This time last week, the Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de-escalation. President Trump backed away from a threat to …
26th March 2026
Global Overview – A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and RBA – would raise rates further, …
25th March 2026
The Iran conflict is more than just another shock to the global economy; it’s a reminder that the long-neglected supply side is becoming an increasingly potent source of macroeconomic instability. Policymakers and investors have focused overwhelmingly on …
24th March 2026
With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. Demand destruction is a permanent or sustained decline in the …
23rd March 2026
