Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The rally in industrial metals prices over the last few months has begun to unwind and, because it seemed based on excessive optimism, we think prices will fall further over the coming months. After all, while industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by a combination of interest rate cuts, a recovery in economic growth in advanced economies, and government support for infrastructure spending in China, we doubt the recovery will be overly strong. Moreover, an inevitable slowdown in China’s property sector activity will be a headwind to prices beyond this year. Meanwhile, the recent surge in the gold price to fresh record highs also appears overdone and we forecast the price to fall by 10% between now and end-2024.
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