We expect targeted stimulus in China to put a floor under base metals prices in the remainder of 2023. But the slowdown in developed economies (DMs) will prevent significant gains. Prices should start to pick up in 2024 as monetary easing takes hold in DMs and some infrastructure spending supports the Chinese construction sector.
The outlook for US steel prices this year appears brighter with tentative signs of stronger demand. But slower growth in the EU will weigh on demand there. China’s steel demand and prices should hold up, but lower steel production will weigh on iron ore prices. Meanwhile a stronger US dollar bodes ill for precious metals prices this year, but US rate cuts and a weaker dollar in 2024 will provide a more positive backdrop.
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