Equities Update Foreigners’ voracious appetite for US equities is another red flag A surge in foreign buying of US equities could be another sign of trouble ahead for the S&P 500. After all, smaller surges also took place before the dotcom bubble burst; the GFC; and 2022’s drawdown... 22nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Low valuations won’t help Brazilian equities much We think Brazilian equities will underperform most other EM equity indices this year as commodity prices fall back and political risk remains a problem. In our view, Brazil’s equity market does not... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Some reasons for caution, but not panic, on the S&P 500 Despite some warning signs under the hood of the S&P 500’s rally, we aren’t ready to call time on it yet. The market could make further gains, potentially quite large ones, before running into any... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update How has the AI rally affected global equity valuations? The extent to which the AI-related rally in stock markets over recent years has been driven by (expected) earnings or valuations depends on how you measure these things. But in general, stocks in... 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Is the S&P 500 really value for money? The valuation of the S&P 500 continues to look very stretched after accounting for the ‘noise’ of the earnings cycle. This is one sign that we may be in the ‘blow-off’ phase of the AI-fuelled rally. 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update What risk does the IPO boom pose to the stock market? Blockbuster IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, together with share sales by some AI hyperscalers, look set to unleash a wave of equity supply that will prove a major test for the stock market... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Equities Update How much more upside for equities if the Strait re-opened fully? If the Strait of Hormuz re-opened fully soon, the upside for global equities might appear limited given MSCI’s ACWI Index is now more than 4% higher than before the Iran war began. But its surge from... 7th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Taking stock of the tech-led equity rally The tech-led rally in the US stock market over the past month or so primarily reflects earnings expectations for semiconductor firms surging, with other firms – including other IT firms – gaining much... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries’ hedging role is diminished, but not gone The recent return of a positive stock-bond correlation has raised questions about the role of bonds in a portfolio, such as the traditional “60/40”. We agree that their use as a hedge may have... 15th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Reasons for caution on US energy equities The energy sector has been the strongest performing sector of the S&P 500 since the conflict in the Middle East began, but our baseline assumption is that most of this outperformance will unwind over... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update How much of a bubble is there really in Korean equities? While a partial unwind of earlier “excessive exuberance” may explain some of the huge swings in Korea’s equities since the Iran war began, we think the fundamentals of its earlier rally are stronger... 17th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders bracing for prolonged disruption Extreme volatility in front-month oil prices has captured the headlines, but there have also been large moves in the shape of the oil futures curve and in the options market. As it stands, investors... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
