US Economics Update Blue tsunami in midterms increases policy risks for markets The magnitude of the gains for the Democrats in the midterms does not change too much for the near-term policy outlook, given the party still lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Can blockbuster S&P 500 EPS growth continue? Our base case is that the surge in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) since the start of the AI revolution won’t continue next year. Indeed, we suspect it will partly reverse, undermining the index in... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Where to hide in equities if the AI boom turns to bust Energy and financials have fared well in tech selloffs over recent years, but we doubt they would continue to do so if the AI boom turned to bust. Traditional defensive sectors remain the best bet in... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update South African bonds to outperform; equities to sell off A drop back in energy prices and progress on fiscal consolidation should allow South African bond yields to fall next year, whereas the outlook for the rand and equities is less encouraging. 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities What the US midterms might mean for markets The main risks for financial markets from the midterms are a contested election outcome, emboldened Democrats pushing for Trump’s impeachment, and concerns about a leftward shift by the Democratic... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Brazil’s markets respond to the election? The experience from Brazil’s 2018 and 2022 elections is that a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would support equities (a boost of 10-20% seems plausible) and pull local currency bond yields down sharply... 28th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Poor returns from China’s assets are structural, not cyclical Despite China’s apparently robust economic growth over the past decade, the returns from its stock market have been poor and its bond yields are very low. We think the next decade will be similarly... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Making the relative case for European equities We think the underperformance of the European stock market relative to that of the US in recent years will reverse over the medium term as the AI-fuelled equity boom soon turns to bust. 15th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The threat from bonds to equities We doubt the Treasury market will be the straw that breaks the US stock market’s back. Admittedly, higher government bond yields started to weigh on equities there earlier this week. But the S&P 500... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Indian equities to outperform amidst global AI sell-off We think that strong fundamentals and India’s lower exposure than many to AI stocks will lead the MSCI India to outperform all other markets over the next 18 months. 3rd August 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update UK stocks may fare better than most if AI bubble pops If the AI-fuelled equity bubble is in the process of bursting, we think the UK stock market will hold up better than most of its peers, unlike after the dotcom crash. 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Foreigners’ voracious appetite for US equities is another red flag A surge in foreign buying of US equities could be another sign of trouble ahead for the S&P 500. After all, smaller surges also took place before the dotcom bubble burst; the GFC; and 2022’s drawdown... 22nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
