Canada Economics Update Ottawa prioritises growth over deficit reduction The federal government’s decision to spend nearly all of its newly projected windfall revenues gives the Bank of Canada even more free rein to focus on the upside risks to inflation. We therefore... 6th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada embarks on a cautious hiking cycle The conservative messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the policy rate supports our view that investors are being overly presumptuous in expecting three further hikes. We still... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch. (Oct. 2026) The rise in mortgage rates has sent the housing market into reverse, with sales and prices both falling in September. The near-term risks to mortgage rates lie to the upside, which means prices could... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update How would Canada fare without Quebec and Alberta? The blow to GDP from the loss of Quebec industry and Alberta’s oil and gas sector could be mediated somewhat by continued free trade, firms relocating from the seceding provinces to the rest of Canada... 15th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to drag its feet a bit longer on hikes The Bank of Canada’s communications suggest it is unlikely to hike in October unless the September CPI data deliver a large upside surprise, or oil prices rise much further. More generally, despite... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Sep. 2026) Higher borrowing costs took some momentum out of the housing market in August. We expect this to continue to halt the nascent recovery over the coming months. 15th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message brings 2026 hike into play The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message today, saying “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and that it is “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”. We do not view this as a... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug. 2026) The latest data provide a bit more reassurance that the housing market is past the worst, but the renewed rise in five-year bond yields suggests that higher mortgage rates will soon temper the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Section 338 tariffs further delay a worsening CUSMA The new Section 338 tariffs risk pushing the economy back towards recession, especially if Ottawa’s planned retaliation invites further aggression from the US. Worse still, a renewed trade war muddies... 17th August 2026 (Updated 24th August 2026) · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Little sign yet of AI-related GDP gains in Canada There is little sign of AI effects supporting activity or productivity in Canada yet, although the evidence of accelerating ICT investment and increasing AI adoption more broadly bodes well for the... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
