Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul. 2026) The housing market continued to slowly improve in June and the recent rebound in government bond yields is unlikely to be large enough to trigger any renewed near-term weakness. Meanwhile, the... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank content to look through energy-driven inflation The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update An (updated) primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 2nd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun. 2026) The housing market showed firmer signs of improvement in May and, with oil prices dropping back sharply in the past week, there is now a lower chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to spoil... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2026) There were some encouraging signs of stabilisation in the headline housing market indicators for April, but the further decline in the sales-to-new listing ratio and recent rise in fixed mortgage... 15th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank admits higher growth and oil prices could require hikes The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its revised projections for higher growth this year and next, mean there are growing upside... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its updated projections for higher growth this year and next, make us slightly more nervous... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Improved fiscal situation but hurdles lie ahead Higher revenues on the back of elevated oil prices and stronger economic growth were behind downward revisions to the budget deficit projections in the Spring Economic Update (SEU). While the economic... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show war putting nascent recovery at risk The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show that easing concern among firms and households regarding trade tensions have been swiftly replaced by fresh anxieties about falling activity and... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
