The tightening of financial conditions this week provided a timely reminder of the downside risks to the economy this year and next. 2018 won’t necessarily be the slam dunk that many are assuming. The sharp sell-off in the Treasury market highlights the risk that financial conditions may tighten markedly this year, while reports that the Canadian government is “increasingly convinced” that the US will pull out of NAFTA triggered a mini-surge in the dollar.
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