2018: How can it all go wrong?

Our forecast that GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% next year is boringly in line with the consensus. Given the constellation of positive factors boosting economic growth, however, it’s hard to be contrarian for next year, at least on the downside. The almost unprecedented synchronised strength of global economic growth, the imminent fiscal stimulus, the weaker dollar, buoyant consumer and business sentiment, the low level of long-term interest rates and the modest rally in energy prices will support an economy that already has considerable momentum going into 2018. What could possibly go wrong?