Diverging house price surveys reflect timing issues – little more

All the major indices have now reported some falls in average house prices. But the scale of those falls varies wildly. Should we be concerned? At one extreme, the Halifax and Nationwide have reported falls of between 8-10%. By contrast, the Land Registry, Communities and Local Government (CLG) and FT figures all show that prices are down by less than 2%. (See Chart 1.) To us, given the scale of overvaluation, the unprecedented mortgage credit squeeze, as well as more qualitative data such as this morning’s RICS survey, the lenders’ indices seem to fit the big picture pretty well. • However, a recent Financial Times article, “Differing house price data concern economists”, 12