With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave house price growth sluggish further out. That said, we have pencilled in a gentle recovery in transactions in both 2019 and 2020, driven by an improving house price-to-earnings ratio and stronger economic growth. Demand for new homes, however, has peaked, meaning housebuilding will slow across our forecast.
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