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The shape of recessions past

If the coming recession is anything like those seen since 1950, it will last for 18 months and result in a 2.7% fall in real GDP. Thankfully, sharp falls in interest rates next year should mean that the impending recession is shorter and shallower than this. But if inflation concerns continue to prevent the MPC from cutting rates, the recession may end up being as severe as previous ones.

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