The consumer recovery remains on track. Consumer confidence is still rising and the housing market will receive a fillip from the second stage of the Help to Buy Scheme. Admittedly, it will be a while before real pay starts to rise again, especially with nominal pay growth slowing but utility prices set to rise again. Indeed, consumer spending is unlikely to return to pre-crisis rates any time soon. Nonetheless, we expect annual growth in real spending of about 2% for the next couple of years.
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