A modest rise in interest rates will not generate a commercial property crash (Q4 06)

Neither our macro-economic nor our commercial property market forecasts have changed materially since the previous edition of the Analyst. We expect GDP growth to slow from an estimated 2.5% in 2006 to 2% in 2007 as a weaker global environment takes its toll on UK export growth. Domestic economic activity should hold up well, however, not least because we expect interest rates to be cut to support growth in late 2007 and early 2008. If we are right, the outlook is for steady growth in employment and consumer spending.