Riksbank sticks to its guns, for now

Next week, we expect Swedish and Norwegian CPI data to show that core inflation edged up in both cases in August, and revised Q2 Swedish GDP data to show that the economy contracted even faster than initially estimated. Meanwhile, if the ECB disappoints investor expectations by only cutting its deposit rate by 10bps next Thursday, as we think likely, the Swiss franc and the Nordic currencies are likely to come under downward pressure (which would be welcomed by the SNB!).