The Gulf economies have been the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in the region but almost all countries have managed to put new daily cases on a downwards trend thanks to strict containment measures and aggressive testing. In contrast, new cases are rising in Algeria, Morocco, and Lebanon. Morocco risks being removed from the EU’s “safe travel” list, which would deal a fresh blow to its tourism sector. For now, high frequency data suggest that activity in the region is strengthening, but the threat of fresh lockdowns reinforces our expectations that the economic recovery will be weak.
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