Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold

With other analysts reportedly revising down their forecasts and the media coverage almost entirely downbeat, we thought it worth dusting off some of our favourite gold charts. These suggest that the gold price, currently around $1,150 per ounce, could fall as low as $850 in a downside scenario and jump to $2,000 in an upside scenario. Our own central forecast for the end of the year remains $1,400, roughly in the middle of these two extremes, but comfortably above both today’s levels and the consensus.