Gold price on track for $1,400

The continued recovery in the gold price to $1,300 per ounce today means that it has already hit our (relatively bullish) target for the end of this year. Looking ahead, one big unknown is the market responses to monetary easing by the ECB and to early tightening by the US Fed, both of which could be either positive or negative for gold. On balance, though, we expect the backdrop for the precious metal to remain favourable and have brought forward our existing end-2016 forecast of $1,400 by a year.