Gold down, but not out?

Right now the decision to nudge up our forecasts for the gold price in the wake of Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US presidential election may not look like a smart one. Indeed, the price of the precious metal could fall further if (a big if) the dollar and bond yields continue to surge without these moves undermining the demand for riskier assets. However, we think it more likely that gold will now recover due to rising inflation and to increased political risks, both in the US and elsewhere.