Difficult end to a dismal year

Recoveries in Latin America are under threat from a fresh rise in new COVID-19 cases, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Chile. Policymakers in all three countries have tightened restrictions which will weigh on activity this month and into early 2021. The prospect of a second wave of infections may hasten a move to secure vaccines, and most governments in Latin America are planning to start immunisation programmes early next year. But given the challenges in acquiring and distributing effective vaccines, most of the economic boost on this front may only come in the second half of 2021. In the meantime, stringent restrictions and high caseloads suggest that economic activity in the region will probably get worse before it gets better.