A challenging Q1

The surge in COVID-19 cases and tightening of containment measures across most of the region are likely to bring the economic recovery in Latin America to a standstill in Q1. High-frequency mobility indicators have stayed well below their pre-Christmas levels in the last few weeks, with Colombia seemingly particularly hard hit. And early surveys for this month out of Brazil suggest that activity is weakening there. The slow roll-out of vaccines across the region means that strains in health care systems are likely to remain pressing and that restrictions will stay in place over the coming months, holding back the recovery.