Our analysis suggests that Japan’s GDP grew by around 1.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (preliminary official data will be released on 15th February). This would be roughly equivalent to 6.0% at an annualised rate, faster even than the 5.7% recorded in the US, and would lay a firm foundation for the first half of 2010. But this should be as good as it gets – the economy could be back in recession again by the end of next year.
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