New forecasts for emerging market bonds and equities

We have revised some of our key forecasts for emerging market (EM) bonds and equities. On average, we now expect larger increases in credit spreads and smaller gains in stock prices than before. Our end-2015 projection for the JP Morgan EMBI+ spread is 395bp, an increase of more than 40bp from today’s level, while our projection for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US dollar-basis) is 1,045, a gain of only around 3%. A summary of our key forecasts, together with our previous projections, is shown on page 2. More detailed country data are available on request and can also be found in our regular Markets Monitors on our Emerging Markets economics services.