Our view from the outset has been that 2013 would be a year of two halves for risky assets, with a strong start eventually giving way to renewed weakness. In the event, while we were correct to be relatively cautious on most commodities, the performance of developed equity markets has been much better than we had anticipated and our more bullish forecasts for 2014 have already been exceeded. Nonetheless, the “two halves” story still seems the right one for this year. Indeed, there are three reasons to think that the rally may soon run out of steam.
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