Ten key calls for 2018 and beyond

We expect 2018 to be another year of strong global growth, helped by a steady rise in employment and supportive policies, including a small fiscal stimulus in the US. In most advanced economies core inflation will rise too slowly to reach the targets. Nonetheless, central banks are likely to withdraw policy stimulus gradually as they turn their attention to financial stability risks. Meanwhile, the expansion in commodity-producing emerging economies such as Brazil and Russia should gain momentum, but in China it will probably slow, prompting the People’s Bank to loosen policy. Further ahead, we think there will be a USled slowdown in 2019 which, along with higher US interest rates, may cause a slump in equity prices.