Modelling the shock to OECD household spending

The early evidence suggests that household consumption in OECD economies may not have collapsed by as much as many fear in March. But as the boost from food stockpiling fades, overall consumer spending will plummet in Q2. Using our new (downloadable) 22-item household spending model, the UK and the euro-zone look most vulnerable given high spending on services such as hospitality. Meanwhile, consumption in EMs like Mexico, where households normally spend a lot on food, will fall less sharply.