For now, our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280bn in the first quarter of this year. If we’re right, then this will mean that global GDP will not grow in q/q terms for the first time since 2009. We assume the virus will be contained soon, and that lost output is made up in subsequent quarters, so that world GDP reaches the level it would have done had there been no outbreak by the middle of 2021.
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