Second waves weighing on consumer recovery

While retail sales have rebounded rapidly and are now above pre-virus levels in most major DMs, overall consumer spending has failed to reach the levels seen at the end of last year. That is largely because many of the consumer services which are most susceptible to containment measures are not included in the retail sales data. Looking ahead, we expect these areas of spending to remain weak, particularly as the surge in new cases in parts of Europe could lead to stricter measures. And despite the rapid rebound so far, it is possible that the surge in virus cases will start to affect retail sales too. Indeed, Google data suggest that visits to retail and recreation sites have dropped back in recent weeks.