The rise in Russian inflation, to 2.4% y/y, last month confirms that the headline rate has passed its trough and we expect it to drift up over the rest of the year as food inflation strengthens. But with headline inflation set to remain below target, the central bank’s easing cycle still has much further to run. The next move is likely to be a 25bp cut (to 7.00%) at the meeting on 27th April.
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